Thoughts on the BCS Standings

November 2, 2009

As I said last week, Texas gained a lot of ground on Alabama in the human polls. This week, with Alabama having a bye and Texas defeating then-14th ranked Oklahoma State on the road in dominating fashion 41-14 gave Texas a major boost past Alabama to No. 2 in both the AP Poll (that doesn't count in the BCS) and the meaningful polls in the Coaches' Poll and the Harris Poll that each equal one-third of the BCS formula.

With the boost from the pollsters, Texas now has an adequate lead over Alabama at No. 2 in the BCS Standings behind Florida, while Florida has a substantial .0691% lead over Texas. Florida finally showed up as a dominant team in its 41-17 beatdown of Georgia.

The past two weeks, the Iowa Hawkeyes had been the number one team among the six computers that make up the final third of the BCS formula, but this week the computers have put Florida at No. 1, Iowa at No. 2 and Texas and Alabama tied at No. 3. Granted, the computers will never love Texas enough to give them a significant boost because of the strength of their remaining schedule (their next game is against Central Florida, really? A 70-0 win over UCF would lower Texas's BCS avg) while Alabama has the biggest of its regular season against No. 9 LSU in Tuscaloosa to determine the SEC West Title. LSU has won its last four trips to Tuscaloosa, but this is as different an Alabama team as LSU has ever seen.

I have questions about LSU's defense but also about Alabama's passing game. They have the stud RB in Mark Ingram, but Greg McElroy is having trouble getting the ball to the big playmaker at wide receiver in Julio Jones. Jones did make his presence felt in the game though as a return specialist filling in for the injuried Javier Arenas (who is the best return man in the country).

Thanks to the boost from the computers, Iowa remains at No. 4 despite still not earning much respect from the pollsters who have TCU, Cincinnati, and Boise State ranked ahead of the Hawkeyes while I have those teams plus Oregon ahead of Iowa in my rankings.

My Current Top 25

I mean I'm still not convinced with Iowa. They were down 24-7 to Indiana at halftime. Indiana? And Ricky Stanzi threw 5 interceptions and Iowa had 6 turnovers. They were lucky their defense held (and Indiana's offense is sad) and they were able to regroup and comeback in a 42-24 victory.

Last Week's BCS Notes

Cincinnati came back to jump TCU and Boise State at No. 5 while previous No. 5 USC fell to No. 12 after being demolished 47-20 by Oregon in Autzen Stadium where I predicted the Oregon Ducks would defeat the mighty USC Trojans. USC hasn't won in the state of Oregon in a long time losing to Oregon State twice in Corvalis and losing to Oregon twice in Autzen which is the toughest environment in college football for visiting teams. Oregon handed USC its worst loss in 13 years.

With the win though Oregon only moved up two spots from 10 to 8 directly behind Boise State at No. 7. Boise State is the only team to have beaten Oregon back on Sept. 5.

Now with Boise State, I worry about them because they are only .0145% behind TCU but only ONE of those two teams will likely get an at-large BCS bid and let me say it again that it's just not fair. TCU still has to play a decent Mountain West schedule that includes Utah while Boise's only tough game left is next Saturday against Tulsa who's own standing has plummeted after a couple losses and struggles for that once-prolific Golden Hurricane offense so Boise's win over Tulsa would not be that favorable amongst the computers. Like I said, if it were up to me, I sent TCU to the Sugar Bowl and Boise State to the Fiesta. That's assuming one of these two teams don't make the national title game this year which could be a possibility.

Look out for Notre Dame too who could be going for a BCS bid. They've moved up to No. 22 and still have time to get into the Top 14 which would give them an at-large and also looking down at the 20s is Oklahoma getting in at No. 24. Oklahoma has continuously been ranked by the human pollsters because they are still among the best teams in the country despite their losses, but the computers have kept them out. Oklahoma has a computer average of .000% which says a lot, but the pollsters continue to move the Sooners up. Joining Oklahoma as new teams into the BCS Top 25 are Wisconsin who dominated in their shutout over Purdue and South Florida that upset then-No. 21 West Virginia on Friday night.

But for right now, the national title picture looks clear. If Texas can win out the rest of the season which they are now on track to do after getting past Oklahoma State, it will be the Longhorns and Florida or Alabama for the national championship. If Alabama beats LSU on Nov. 7, they will see Florida in the SEC Championship Game with the winner ready for Texas barring any major upset of the Longhorns. Texas could be challenged on Thanksgiving night by the Texas A&M Aggies because College Station is a tough environment to play and they've upset the Horns before, but honestly a team that earlier this season trailed Kansas State 38-0 at halftime, is not going to upset the Texas Longhorns. Now remember that Texas will also have to get through the winner of the Big 12 North, but that division is so discombobulated this year that it could be Kansas State or Iowa State coming out of there which is sad representation. Everything seems to be going right for my Longhorns.

Let's take a look at the new BCS Standings
Current BCS Standings
(x) = last week
1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (3)
3. Alabama (2)
4. Iowa (4)
5. Cincinnati (8)
6. TCU (6)
7. Boise State (7)
8. Oregon (10)
9. LSU (9)
10. Georgia Tech (11)
11. Penn State (12)
12. USC (5)
13. Pittsburgh (15)
14. Utah (16)
15. Houston (18)
16. Ohio State (17)
17. Miami (19)
18. Arizona (20)
19. Oklahoma State (14)
20. California (24)
21. Wisconsin (NR)
22. Notre Dame (23)
23. Virginia Tech (13)
24. Oklahoma (NR)
25. South Florida (NR)
Dropped:
West Virginia (21)
South Carolina (22)
Ole Miss (25)

BCS National Championship Game
January 7, 2010 in the Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
(Footnote: Texas is undefeated in the Rose Bowl)

RIP Jasper Howard. The University of Connecticut played their first home game Saturday since the death of Howard. As the Huskies took the field, they brought out Jasper's helmet and jersey in front of the pack. During a moment of silence, fans all held signs showing the number 6. UConn lost 28-24 to Rutgers, but played their hearts out in honor of their fallen teammate. Jazz Howard, the junior starting corneback, was stabbed and killed on campus on Oct. 18. Three men have now been arrested.