It's important to note that I have always been anti-BCS, but now things might have changed. Am I all of a sudden pro-BCS? I don't even know anymore, but really, this BCS Mess is fun. Unfair, corrupt and crazy; but fun.
With three of the top five teams losing this week, the BCS is in complete chaos. My Top 5 might not even be close to the BCS Top 5. My Top 10 or Top 25 for that matter will be completely different because the polls have imploded. You can see my Top 25 here.
But really, the fact that we're talking about the BCS is great. If it wasn't for the BCS, then yesterday would have meant NOTHING. Absolutely nothing. Oklahoma State, Oregon and Oklahoma would all lose and say "That's OK, we're still making the playoffs." The finishes would not have been epic. The games would not have mattered. You want a playoff in college football? You had it. It started yesterday. Three teams were eliminated. Done. More to come.
You want to compete, you want to win every game. The BCS motivates you to win every game. This is what makes college football the greatest sport because every game matters. Did you not see the amazing finish in overtime between Tennessee and Vanderbilt? Does that game matter in terms of national championship talk? NO, but Tennessee is still alive to become bowl eligible thanks to that win.
My Bowl Projections
The top five of the BCS will have some order of these teams: LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Stanford/Virginia Tech/Oklahoma State.
There are some key things to note:
1) Remember before Oklahoma State and they were No. 2 and everyone was talking about "No we can't have a rematch if Oklahoma State loses" and Alabama was at No. 3 and Oregon was at No. 4 and LSU already beat them both? Well, Oregon's out now with the loss at home to USC to give them two losses on the year. But with Oklahoma State losing AND Oklahoma losing, it seems almost certain we'll have a rematch in the BCS Championship Game for the first time.
2) If Stanford gets into the Top 4 of the BCS, it's just like last year. They won't win their conference but still receive an automatic bid to a BCS game if and only if they finish in the Top 4. Oregon will go to the Rose Bowl (assuming they win the championship game vs. UCLA/Arizona State/Utah) but Stanford could find its way into the Fiesta. If Stanford does not make the Top 4, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma and Houston goes undefeated, then Stanford is in serious jeopardy of not making a BCS game as a 1-loss team.
3) If the top three ends up being...1. LSU 2. Alabama 3. Arkansas, obviously, that's all SEC but it's also All-SEC West Division and three teams that have played each other. LSU has already beaten Alabama in Tuscaloosa. LSU plays Arkansas next. If LSU loses to Arkansas, Alabama will be No. 1, Arkansas will be No. 2 and LSU will be No. 3 and be left out of the championship game. But there's no way you can let Alabama vs. Arkansas be the BCS Championship Game. NO WAY. Alabama DOMINATED Arkansas already this season. It wasn't even close. It was so bad that the SEC's best quarterback, Tyler Wilson (Arkansas) got benched in the game.
But now, if LSU stays course and beats Arkansas, but then somehow loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, the Tigers should still be okay. Alabama will move up to No 1, but then there will be no doubt that LSU is the best 1-loss team in the country (unless they shockingly get dominated by Georgia) and I can't see a way where LSU would drop lower than No. 2 and we would still have the LSU-Alabama title game, with the rankings flip-flopped. That's my take.
If LSU goes ahead and beats Georgia to win the SEC, that's all fine and dandy and we have the LSU-Alabama rematch in the national championship game, no? I was anti-rematch earlier because this is what bothers me. If LSU and Alabama play again, and Alabama wins this time, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? WHAT DOES THAT PROVE? Yes, Alabama would be your "national champion" but they'd be 1-1 against LSU, a team that they lost to at home. If you really want to pick a national champion between LSU and Alabama, you'd have them play best 2 out of 3. I'm serious. If LSU wins the SEC and stays No. 1, just give them the national championship. They earned it on the field. They played the toughest schedule. They'll have wins over Oregon, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia. I MEAN COME ON, is that not your national champion right there? If they lose to Alabama in one more game, how is that fair? WHO HAS ALABAMA BEATEN? Penn State? Eh. Arkansas? OK. Florida? Alright.
So that's what happens if LSU loses.
Let's assume LSU wins. ....Houston is the only other undefeated team in the country. BCS championship contender? Not a chance. And Houston travels to Tulsa next week and then gets Southern Miss in the Conference USA Championship. No guarantee they stay undefeated.
So, who's the best one-loss team in the country? Oh wait, that's right, it's Alabama. Let me rephrase that, who's the best one-loss team in the country not named Alabama?
Is it Arkansas? No, because LSU will probably hand Arkansas another loss and Arkansas was dominated by Alabama.
Is it Stanford? No, because they were dominated by an overrated Oregon team at home and Stanford is slow and has no playmakers outside of Andrew Luck.
Is it Boise State? Are you kidding? The Boise State that allowed 473 passing yards to TCU? The one that gave up 350 yards to San Diego State when Ryan Lindley has no receivers to throw to?
Is it Virginia Tech? The Virginia Tech that almost lost to East Carolina? That almost lost to Miami at home? That almost lost to Duke? That DID lose to Clemson...by 20 points...at home? Well, the answer to this one is MAYBE. Virginia Tech has a chance to climb into the Top 5 by default and redeem itself in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson. If Virginia Tech wins, they could find themselves in the discussion.
What about Oklahoma State? The problem with Oklahoma State is they don't play defense. Virginia Tech
does. But still, Oklahoma State has the best offense in the country and they only lost to Iowa State on the road in double overtime because of turnovers. Fumbles by Joseph Randle and mistakes by Brandon Weeden and you have to understand, those don't happen often. If not for those mistakes, Oklahoma State is still undefeated today. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, it could find itself in the heat of the title talk and back at No. 3. Thanks to the other losses, Oklahoma State won't drop to 6th or 7th in the rankings, they'll stay in the top five. Now, if Oklahoma continues its historical domination of Oklahoma State on December 3, then all bets are off for Oklahoma State, not only for the title game, but for a BCS game, period. A two-loss Cowboys team won't even be in the BCS. That Bedlam game just got a little bit bigger.
So what now? It has to be LSU vs. Alabama, right? They are the TWO BEST TEAMS. CLEARLY. And that's what the BCS is supposed to do: match up the two best teams. But the human voters are two-thirds of the BCS formula and it's no secret that a lot of the human voters are anti-rematch. Could they nudge Alabama down just enough to sneak Virginia Tech or Oklahoma State in? This could become a discussion in the next two weeks if Virginia Tech wins the ACC and Oklahoma State wins the Big 12, but those are still two big "IFs" to worry about.
So the BCS Championship Game could be any of the following...
1. LSU vs. Alabama
2. Alabama vs. LSU
3. Alabama vs. Arkansas
4. Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
5. LSU vs. Oklahoma State
6. LSU vs. Alabama
7. LSU vs. Alabama
8. LSU vs. Alabama
9. LSU vs. Alabama
10. LSU vs. Alabama
Let the BCS Mess continue...
Twitter: @P_Woo
With three of the top five teams losing this week, the BCS is in complete chaos. My Top 5 might not even be close to the BCS Top 5. My Top 10 or Top 25 for that matter will be completely different because the polls have imploded. You can see my Top 25 here.
But really, the fact that we're talking about the BCS is great. If it wasn't for the BCS, then yesterday would have meant NOTHING. Absolutely nothing. Oklahoma State, Oregon and Oklahoma would all lose and say "That's OK, we're still making the playoffs." The finishes would not have been epic. The games would not have mattered. You want a playoff in college football? You had it. It started yesterday. Three teams were eliminated. Done. More to come.
You want to compete, you want to win every game. The BCS motivates you to win every game. This is what makes college football the greatest sport because every game matters. Did you not see the amazing finish in overtime between Tennessee and Vanderbilt? Does that game matter in terms of national championship talk? NO, but Tennessee is still alive to become bowl eligible thanks to that win.
My Bowl Projections
The top five of the BCS will have some order of these teams: LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Stanford/Virginia Tech/Oklahoma State.
There are some key things to note:
1) Remember before Oklahoma State and they were No. 2 and everyone was talking about "No we can't have a rematch if Oklahoma State loses" and Alabama was at No. 3 and Oregon was at No. 4 and LSU already beat them both? Well, Oregon's out now with the loss at home to USC to give them two losses on the year. But with Oklahoma State losing AND Oklahoma losing, it seems almost certain we'll have a rematch in the BCS Championship Game for the first time.
2) If Stanford gets into the Top 4 of the BCS, it's just like last year. They won't win their conference but still receive an automatic bid to a BCS game if and only if they finish in the Top 4. Oregon will go to the Rose Bowl (assuming they win the championship game vs. UCLA/Arizona State/Utah) but Stanford could find its way into the Fiesta. If Stanford does not make the Top 4, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma and Houston goes undefeated, then Stanford is in serious jeopardy of not making a BCS game as a 1-loss team.
3) If the top three ends up being...1. LSU 2. Alabama 3. Arkansas, obviously, that's all SEC but it's also All-SEC West Division and three teams that have played each other. LSU has already beaten Alabama in Tuscaloosa. LSU plays Arkansas next. If LSU loses to Arkansas, Alabama will be No. 1, Arkansas will be No. 2 and LSU will be No. 3 and be left out of the championship game. But there's no way you can let Alabama vs. Arkansas be the BCS Championship Game. NO WAY. Alabama DOMINATED Arkansas already this season. It wasn't even close. It was so bad that the SEC's best quarterback, Tyler Wilson (Arkansas) got benched in the game.
But now, if LSU stays course and beats Arkansas, but then somehow loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, the Tigers should still be okay. Alabama will move up to No 1, but then there will be no doubt that LSU is the best 1-loss team in the country (unless they shockingly get dominated by Georgia) and I can't see a way where LSU would drop lower than No. 2 and we would still have the LSU-Alabama title game, with the rankings flip-flopped. That's my take.
If LSU goes ahead and beats Georgia to win the SEC, that's all fine and dandy and we have the LSU-Alabama rematch in the national championship game, no? I was anti-rematch earlier because this is what bothers me. If LSU and Alabama play again, and Alabama wins this time, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? WHAT DOES THAT PROVE? Yes, Alabama would be your "national champion" but they'd be 1-1 against LSU, a team that they lost to at home. If you really want to pick a national champion between LSU and Alabama, you'd have them play best 2 out of 3. I'm serious. If LSU wins the SEC and stays No. 1, just give them the national championship. They earned it on the field. They played the toughest schedule. They'll have wins over Oregon, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia. I MEAN COME ON, is that not your national champion right there? If they lose to Alabama in one more game, how is that fair? WHO HAS ALABAMA BEATEN? Penn State? Eh. Arkansas? OK. Florida? Alright.
So that's what happens if LSU loses.
Let's assume LSU wins. ....Houston is the only other undefeated team in the country. BCS championship contender? Not a chance. And Houston travels to Tulsa next week and then gets Southern Miss in the Conference USA Championship. No guarantee they stay undefeated.
So, who's the best one-loss team in the country? Oh wait, that's right, it's Alabama. Let me rephrase that, who's the best one-loss team in the country not named Alabama?
Is it Arkansas? No, because LSU will probably hand Arkansas another loss and Arkansas was dominated by Alabama.
Is it Stanford? No, because they were dominated by an overrated Oregon team at home and Stanford is slow and has no playmakers outside of Andrew Luck.
Is it Boise State? Are you kidding? The Boise State that allowed 473 passing yards to TCU? The one that gave up 350 yards to San Diego State when Ryan Lindley has no receivers to throw to?
Is it Virginia Tech? The Virginia Tech that almost lost to East Carolina? That almost lost to Miami at home? That almost lost to Duke? That DID lose to Clemson...by 20 points...at home? Well, the answer to this one is MAYBE. Virginia Tech has a chance to climb into the Top 5 by default and redeem itself in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson. If Virginia Tech wins, they could find themselves in the discussion.
What about Oklahoma State? The problem with Oklahoma State is they don't play defense. Virginia Tech
does. But still, Oklahoma State has the best offense in the country and they only lost to Iowa State on the road in double overtime because of turnovers. Fumbles by Joseph Randle and mistakes by Brandon Weeden and you have to understand, those don't happen often. If not for those mistakes, Oklahoma State is still undefeated today. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, it could find itself in the heat of the title talk and back at No. 3. Thanks to the other losses, Oklahoma State won't drop to 6th or 7th in the rankings, they'll stay in the top five. Now, if Oklahoma continues its historical domination of Oklahoma State on December 3, then all bets are off for Oklahoma State, not only for the title game, but for a BCS game, period. A two-loss Cowboys team won't even be in the BCS. That Bedlam game just got a little bit bigger.
So what now? It has to be LSU vs. Alabama, right? They are the TWO BEST TEAMS. CLEARLY. And that's what the BCS is supposed to do: match up the two best teams. But the human voters are two-thirds of the BCS formula and it's no secret that a lot of the human voters are anti-rematch. Could they nudge Alabama down just enough to sneak Virginia Tech or Oklahoma State in? This could become a discussion in the next two weeks if Virginia Tech wins the ACC and Oklahoma State wins the Big 12, but those are still two big "IFs" to worry about.
So the BCS Championship Game could be any of the following...
1. LSU vs. Alabama
2. Alabama vs. LSU
3. Alabama vs. Arkansas
4. Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
5. LSU vs. Oklahoma State
6. LSU vs. Alabama
7. LSU vs. Alabama
8. LSU vs. Alabama
9. LSU vs. Alabama
10. LSU vs. Alabama
Let the BCS Mess continue...
Twitter: @P_Woo
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