November 30, 2009
It's easy to say that if all the teams that are favored in this week's games take care of business and win out, there will be no controversy in the BCS this year. Florida was the preseason No. 1 and Texas was the preseason No. 2 and both teams simply needed to go undefeated to meet each other in the BCS National Championship game. Up until this point, they have both done so. Texas did stumble a little bit and drop from No. 2 to No. 3 nationally but sit in perfect position as Alabama moved up to No. 2, but Florida and Alabama will meet Dec. 5 at 3:30pm on CBS in the SEC Championship Game and they will cancel each other out so for all purposes, Texas is the No. 2 team.
The Florida-Alabama matchup is huge, but all eyes are on Texas. There are teams like TCU and Cincinnati hoping that Texas loses to Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship Game Dec. 5 8pm on ABC, so that they can get a bid to the national title game. But then there's undefeated Boise State who is simply fighting for a BCS bowl bid, period. Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State this past weekend seemed to lock up Boise State's spot in the Fiesta Bowl, but we can't speak too soon on that. If Texas loses, Boise can probably say goodbye to its BCS chances and that isn't right. Boise will be Texas's biggest fan. The BCS has worked this year, but if Texas does not win the Big 12 in which they are heavily favored to, all the chaos is back in the BCS.
Saturday, Florida beats Alabama and Texas beats Nebraska and meet each other January 7, 2010 in Pasadena. That's the ideal situation. But there are so many other scenarios to think about...
If Alabama happens to beat Florida, Florida would not drop very far in the BCS and it IS possible that Alabama-Florida could swap as the No. 1 and the No. 2 and face other again in a rematch, this time for the national title. Would the college football fan base want that? No. Would the voters actually make it that way? Probably not, but it is a strong possibility IF Florida were to lose.
If Florida beats Alabama as expected, Alabama would drop to about No. 4 or No. 5 and be sent to the Sugar Bowl.
Now, BUT IF TEXAS LOSES to Nebraska, Nebraska would go to the Fiesta Bowl as the Big 12 Champion and Texas would go to to a BCS game with an at-large bid and that takes away a bid from another team and Boise State, though undefeated, would be the odd man out however fair that seems to be.
And think about it, if Texas lost, one would assume that TCU would move right on up from No. 4 to No. 2 if the No. 2 team Alabama and the No. 3 team Texas both lose. It would be miraculous for TCU to get a shot at playing Florida for the national championship. TCU would have a chance to win the national title, which they probably will. I will be TCU's strongest advocate IF Texas were to lose. After watching TCU play, they could beat Texas, Alabama, and/or Florida. The problem is, would the voters actually allow TCU, a non-automatic BCS qualifying school, to play in the BCS National Championship Game? The answer is probably a no and tell me how fair is that? The truth is that Cincinnati would most likely jump TCU from No. 5 to No. 2 because the Bearcats play a tough game against Pittsburgh for the Big East title this weekend while TCU is idle because they finished their schedule at 12-0. If Cincinnati convincingly beats Pitt, they could jump TCU in the BCS Standings because TCU only holds a .0142 lead over Cincy that will be very difficult to maintain while not continuing to play football.
But then you think, WHAT IF Cincinnati loses to Pittsburgh? Are they still a BCS team? A Pittsburgh win would make them the Big East Champions and put them in the Orange Bowl most likely, but would Cincinnati get an at-large and knock Boise out? To avoid that chaos, it's best that Cincinnati just wins against Pitt.
Other upsets probably brewing are Thursday night 9pm on ESPN in the Civil War game against Oregon and Oregon State. This game is for the Pac-10 Championship with the winner facing Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Oregon should win, the game is Autzen Stadium which is difficult for any road team in to win in, so it should be an Ohio State - Oregon Rose Bowl, but if Oregon State were to pull off the upset, do you send Oregon to the BCS as an at-large? And if Oregon were to win, that further strengthens the argument for Boise State to be included in the BCS because remember September 5 when Boise beat Oregon? So many people have forgotten.
Then there's the ACC Championship Game with that winner playing in the Orange Bowl. Georgia Tech is the favorite, but I gotta go with Clemson. Georgia Tech won a close one when they played in September, but Clemson should have won that game. If Clemson wins the ACC and goes to the Orange Bowl AND Texas loses to Nebraska, where do you send TCU? Simply because Texas would go to the Sugar Bowl and that only leaves the Orange for TCU, but TCU and Clemson have already faced each other this season so the Bowl Committee may not want a rematch. It's all very confusing stuff, but again if Texas takes care of business against Nebraska, there is no chaos.
So here's the key points: Boise State deserves to be in a BCS Bowl, possibly the Fiesta against Iowa or Penn State. If Texas loses and puts Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl, Boise probably doesn't get a chance and that's not right. Boise State is rooting for Texas to win. Cincinnati and TCU are rooting for Texas to lose, but Cincinnati must first worry about winning its own game for the Big East title against Pittsburgh.
A Texas loss to Nebraska in the new Cowboys Stadium would set off a world of chaos in the BCS, not only for the national title on who gets to play the SEC winner between TCU and Cincinnati, but also with all the other BCS bowls. Boise State's BCS dreams are on the shoulders of Texas.
And let's look at the game: No. 3 Texas vs. No. 22 Nebraska
The thing I am scared of is Nebraska's defense. This is a Nebraska defense that held an explosive Oklahoma offense to 3 points. That's the first time Oklahoma's been held to single digits this decade, but granted Oklahoma QB Landry Jones threw 5 interceptions in that game, will Colt McCoy do that? No. But it is possible for McCoy to throw maybe two and turn the ball over. This is a very aggressive Nebraska defense and it will be crucial for Texas to get some kind of running game set, because Nebraska bites on the play action all the time. The running game has been the problem for Texas though and not many teams can run against Nebraska's front seven, particular with Ndamukong Suh and Jared Crick inside. Those two are impossible to block. This is a Texas offensive line that is one of the best in the country, but lately has struggled. Stopping Suh, who is first on espn.com's Heisman balloting, is going to be very difficult. Defensively though, I think Texas can suit up with Nebraska. Nebraska has no glaring weapons on offense and have to worry about the inconsistent play of Zac Lee which we know Texas's pass rush will get to him. I have full faith in Texas's secondary as long as they stop blowing coverage one or two times a game and tackle in the open field which is something they have all of a sudden forgot how to do.
All Texas needs is a win to secure its chance at a national championship.
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